Design your own COVID-19 exit strategy.

• In response to COVID-19, the Canadian province of Ontario declared a state of emergency on March 17, 2020.
• The order is currently in place until May 12th and schools will remain closed until at least May 31st.
• The order included closure of non-essential workplaces, outdoor amenities, bars and restaurants, and restrictions on social gatherings of more than five people.
• Physical distancing, along with testing and isolation of cases, has helped to flatten the curve and reduced the number of severe cases and deaths in our population.
• We are starting to think about how to relax the restrictive measures we currently have in place.
• The challenge we face is: how do we re-open our economy without losing the hard-earned gains we've already achieved together?
• The tool below lets you explore different scenarios for relaxing physical distancing measures over the next 6 months... you can change the amount of time the interventions are in place and their intensity.

Details

• The model below represents COVID-19 spread in the population of Ontario
• The model has been fit to data on the number of COVID-19 cases in intensive care units (ICU) and deaths among hospitalized cases.
• The model describes community transmission. It does not capture the outbreaks that we're experiencing in long-term care homes and other institutional settings.
• The graph shows the number of people in the population experiencing different stages of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 disease.
• When ICU capacity is exceeded, the bars showing cases in ICU turns red to highlight cases that can't receive the care they need because there aren't any remaining ICU beds.